What happened yesterday in Group C of the EuroBasket has made things significantly tougher for the Spanish national team. First, the defeat of Sergio Scariolo’s squad, but also the surprising victory by Bosnia and Herzegovina over Greece, even though the Greeks played without Giannis Antetokounmpo. This leaves the group wide open and virtually forces Spain to beat Greece on the final day.
Below are the scenarios needed for Spain to reach the Round of 16, as well as a reminder of how the tournament is going overall.
The matchups
To analyze the situation in the groups, we first need to recall how the matchups work once this opening phase ends. They are arranged as follows (e.g., 1A = first-place finisher in Group A):
What does Spain need to do to qualify for the Round of 16?
Spain must beat Greece to secure a spot in the knockout rounds. They control their own destiny. Even if they lose, they could still advance as the fourth seed in Group C.
- Spain finishes second if it wins and Bosnia and Italy also win, or if it wins, Italy loses, and Bosnia wins.
- Spain will be third if it beats Greece by 55 points or if Georgia and Italy both win.
- Spain will be fourth if it wins and Cyprus and Georgia also win, or if it loses and Georgia wins.
- Spain is eliminated if it loses and Bosnia beats Georgia.
In other words, if Spain loses, a Georgia victory is its only chance to slip into the fourth spot.
Because they play on Thursday, Sept. 4 at 8:30 p.m. (Spanish peninsular time), Spain will head into its game knowing the other results in the group.
General situation in the other groups
Group A
Turkey, Serbia, and Latvia have already clinched spots in the Round of 16. The first two will square off for the top seed in their head-to-head clash on the final day (Wednesday, Sept. 3 at 8:30 p.m.). Estonia and Portugal will face each other for the fourth spot (Wednesday, Sept. 3 at 1:45 p.m.).
The Czech Republic is eliminated.
Group B
Germany, Lithuania, and Finland have already qualified for the Round of 16, and there are no teams eliminated yet. Germany has locked in the top spot. If Lithuania wins, it secures second place. The fourth spot depends on the following scenarios:
- Montenegro qualifies with a win.
- Sweden qualifies with a win plus a Great Britain win over Montenegro, or with a loss coupled with a 32-point Great Britain victory.
- Great Britain can still qualify with a 33-point (or more) win and a Sweden loss to Lithuania.
Group D
Israel, France, Poland, and Slovenia have all advanced to the Round of 16. Israel takes first place with a win over Slovenia, and France locks in second with a victory over Iceland. Poland would claim first place if it beats Belgium and both France and Israel lose.
(Photo by FIBA EuroBasket)
