The NBA tips off tonight, and this final preview spotlights last season’s top regular-season squad and reigning champion: the Oklahoma City Thunder. We’ll run through last year’s numbers and results, examine the roster and season goals, identify a key player, and offer a forecast for the franchise.
Oklahoma City Thunder 2025-26
How They Approach the Season
With no major changes except selecting Thomas Sorber in the Draft and getting Nikola Topic back from injury, the motto seems to be, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” All summer long, people have touted the Oklahoma City Thunder as the team best positioned to form a dynasty since the Golden State Warriors. But in the current era—kicked off by the Toronto Raptors in 2019, producing seven champions in seven seasons—repeating a title is a tough mission.
Last year, their regular-season dominance was historic. They surpassed the 1972 Lakers’ best point differential and joined the century’s top defenses relative to the league average (seven points better than the mean defensive rating) and in terms of forced turnovers.
Jalen Williams will miss tonight’s opener and could sit out a few more games following wrist surgery. That’s not overly worrying for a team that, as a reminder, made it through last season despite injuries to Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren.
Concepts such as “keeping your hunger” or “getting stuck” shouldn’t apply to a team of champions this young. Their challenges lie elsewhere.
The Dangers of a Radical Style
Nothing lasts in sports or in life. Yesterday’s gospel recycles today. And the NBA is in a moment of transition with its style of play. Full-court pressure is trending, some teams eye the pick-and-roll with skepticism, and defense is cool again. OKC stands tall in a season of declining offensive efficiency. It’s the first dip since 2021, and a rare occurrence since the offensive explosion of 2015.
The fascinating part is how they pulled it off. While many elite defenses in recent years have tried to hedge their bets—assuming you can’t stop perimeter advantages and focusing on the paint—Mark Daigneault’s squad proved it’s possible to build walls out on the perimeter.
The Thunder built a historic defense anchored by two stellar interior defenders, Holmgren and Hartenstein. But the real power came from piling up defensive standouts far from the paint. Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pressure ball handlers relentlessly and spark fear on every pass, since each is a chance for a steal and a fast break.
It’s natural to think their defensive impact might decrease. Offenses will be better prepared for such a massive challenge, and the brand of physical contact they rely on could spark interest from referees looking to rein it in. Or they could lead a new wave of play that brings more contact and defense back into the league, adjusted for the three-point era.
Either way, OKC will remain one of the league’s elite overall—and on defense especially. The variables outlined above will just decide how dominant they are in the regular season and when it matters most.
“Continuity” in Quotes
Even with no big roster moves, the project’s growth feels inevitable thanks to internal development. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have both extended their deals, and a notable leap in their games is the logical expectation—though this roster could still thrive if they simply continue at their current level.
Jalen Williams’s evolution will likely come from easing Shai’s workload in creating offense, possibly turning Williams into the de facto point guard at times. The guard/forward already has a wide array of offensive weapons and can defend in any scenario—he even lined up as a true center last season when the team was short on bigs. Williams, who looked hesitant in the 2024 playoffs, showed leadership and perfect timing during the championship run. Now that he’s broken out, the sky’s the limit.
A bigger jump seems more obvious for Chet Holmgren, who is still too inconsistent on offense. He’s struggled through stretches with his shot and overall attacking mindset. On paper, he’s the ultimate weapon, letting the Thunder deploy five-out lineups.
But his growth must focus on surviving in the paint as a lone big and asserting himself around the rim, especially because Hartenstein’s contract may be tough to keep long-term. Improving his shooting consistency would also unlock OKC’s offensive versatility. He’s more than a stretch five, though, and the dream scenario is eventually seeing him as a full-time high-post distributor.
Elsewhere, players like Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins could see more growth, along with Nikola Topic once he’s healthy.
Player to Watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
After winning MVP, leading the league in scoring, capturing a championship, and taking Finals MVP, Shai’s mindset this season will dictate what the Thunder become. As Jaylen Brown says in the new season of ‘Starting 5,’ “the game is very easy for him right now.” Shai’s excellence is defined by how routine he makes it look. Every night, he gets to his comfort zones, piles up 10 free throws, and finishes with 30 points in the bag.
That potential was obvious last year, and nobody found a solution to slow him down. Yet if the team’s goal is to keep evolving, maybe Shai steps aside a bit without resorting to rigid turn-taking with Jalen Williams. SGA isn’t Trae Young; he’s already shown he can be a factor off the ball. Expanding that part of his game could lift an offense that, despite winning it all, was the roster’s shakiest point.
Beyond that, as with any player who breaks into the league’s elite circle—a place Shai has occupied for two seasons now—his legacy conversation begins. Watching a star ascend is thrilling, but it’s also fascinating to see how the greats stay up there and refine their unstoppable talent. The challenge is to step out of the Jokic era and give way to the Shai era.
nbamaniacs’ Prediction
Only the Denver Nuggets look capable of challenging the Thunder for Western Conference supremacy. Yet Oklahoma City’s roster construction makes them better equipped to absorb big injuries, giving them a slight edge in the regular season.
We have to address the potential for a dynasty: that’s why this preview highlights their possible paths for improvement or regression. They seem like the best-prepared team on the planet to contend for the championship every year through the next few seasons. Hitting 58 wins and reaching the conference finals should be their baseline. You can guess their ceiling.
(Cover photo by Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
